Diabetes Predicted to Effect One in 10 Adults by 2030

Yesterday, on World Diabetes Day, an alarming prediction concerning the future of the disease was made. According to a report issued by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), diabetes is predicted to rise substantially by the year 2030, to the point where one in 10 adults will suffer from the condition. Should this prediction come to pass, roughly 552 million people will have diabetes within twenty years.

Currently, one in 13 adults suffers from the disease.

The prediction stems from changing factors such as aging, obesity, and demographics. It also includes diagnosed and undiagnosed cases of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

Diabetes type 2 is the most common form of the condition. It is caused by an increase in weight and a sedentary lifestyle, and is normally seen in middle age. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Hispanics have double the risk of developing diabetes in comparison to non-Hispanic whites. Over 8% of the US’s population suffers from diabetes, but almost12% of Hispanics are been diagnosed with the condition.

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that the federation's prediction might be on the mark. "It's a credible figure," said Gojka Roglic, head of WHO's diabetes unit. "But whether or not it's correct, we can't say."

Over 80% of deaths caused by diabetes happen in developing countries. The federation predicted, however, that this percentage will increase to 90%, even in Africa, where infectious diseases have been the leading cause for death.

Roglic stated that the projected future rise in diabetes cases was because of aging, not the obesity epidemic, as was assumed at first. "It's worrying because these people will have an illness which is serious, debilitating, and shortens their lives," said Roglic. "But it doesn't have to happen if we take the right interventions."

World Diabetes Day, implemented in 1991 by the IDF and the WHO, is a worldwide event designed to raise awareness of the condition throughout communities, as well as how to reduce one’s risk of developing diabetes.