Global Atopic Dermatitis Among Children Projected to Rise Over 50 Years

Credit: Pexels

Recent findings on disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) suggest the worldwide burden of atopic dermatitis among children has risen and is projected to continue rising for the next 50 years.¹

These findings were the result of a recent analysis of worldwide data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). These findings were authored by a team led by Luyao Qiu, from the National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders and the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University in China.

Qiu and the team of investigators noted that this chronic, inflammatory skin disease can take place during any stage of a patient’s life, though its incidence is known to peak in the infancy period. They wrote that approximately 80% of atopic dermatitis cases take place prior to the age of 6 years.²

“Up-to-date estimates of the burden of [atopic dermatitis] are essential for health-care planning, resource allocation and prevention strategies,” Qiu and colleagues wrote. “This study aims to provide updated estimates of the prevalence of paediatric [atopic dermatitis] and its associated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year and location, along with forecasts for prevalence up to 2050.”¹

Trial Design

The investigators looked at data drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) which allowed for various insights into the incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) linked to atopic dermatitis among children who are specifically under the age of 14 years. They assessed their data across various demographics, including by country, age, region, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) rating.

The research team evaluated DALYs and different trends in incidence. Additionally, they looked into estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in disease incidence, creating projections for the future through the use of a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and extending their projection to the year 2050.

The investigative team reported that in 2021, there were a total of 317.8 million children included in the GBD assessment, 53.09% of whom were female. The team highlighted that in 2021, 10.2 million new childhood atopic dermatitis cases were reported globally, adding that this suggests a rise of 4.8% (95% UI, 3.9%–5.7%) in absolute case numbers since the year 1990.

The researchers noted, however, that rates of global incidence were shown to have dropped from 560.00 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 522.31–600.95) in 1990. The dip was to 507.19 per 100,000 (95% UI, 470.91–545.24) by 2021.

The investigators further noted that children who, in 1990 and in 2021, had been aged 2–4 years were found to have consistently reported the greatest disease incidence rates in both years. They added that females had exhibited higher rates of atopic dermatitis incidence than the rates of males across all age cohorts.

Projections for Atopic Dermatitis

When they looked toward the future, the research team’s projections suggest that an estimated 9.3 million new cases of atopic dermatitis in children worldwide will be reported by 2050 (95% CI, 3.8–4.8 million). This would represent an 11.52% reduction compared to 2021 and females were projected to account for 53.55% (95% CI, 2.0–7.9 million) of such cases.

However, the investigators noted that although the overall incidence rate among children aged 0–14 is forecasted in the GBD data to dip by 2050, they added that the rate of DALYs is still predicted to rise. Additionally, the team highlighted that when looking at age cohorts, incidence rates of this disease are anticipated to rise for children under the age of 5 and children aged 5–9, though a decline is still projected to occur among those aged 10–14.

The team expressed that there is a projection pointing to children aged 2–4 years remaining the most affected by this skin disease. Such data aligns with earlier research pointing to a peak atopic dermatitis burden in children who are aged 1–5 years, potentially given the notably heightened susceptibility during these early years.

It was also noted by the research team that the gradual incidence rate decrease of atopic dermatitis over the next 3 decades among children may be the result of advancements in treatment and shifts in lifestyle. However, they added that the predicted rise in DALYs highlights persistent challenges.

It was further reported in this research letter that complications such as asthma exacerbation, severe bacterial and fungal infections, and mental health issues, coupled with an aging global population, may result in such an increased burden. While fewer new cases are projected, the overall impact of atopic dermatitis was predicted to intensify due to the longer lifespan of individuals affected by the condition.

“It is estimated that there will be 9,324,224 new cases of childhood [atopic dermatitis] globally in 2050,” they wrote. “Therefore, further research is urgently needed to investigate the determinants of this growing burden and to establish effective prevention, management and treatment strategies for [atopic dermatitis].”¹

References

1. ^{Qiu, L., Yang, L., Li, H., Jiang, J., Xiao, Y., Zhao, X., Wang, H. and Luo, X. (2025), Projected Epidemiology of Atopic Dermatitis in Children From 2022 to 2050: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Clin Exp Allergy. https://doi.org/10.1111/cea.14618.}
2. ^{M. R. Perkin, D. P. Strachan, H. C. Williams, C. T. C. Kennedy, J. Golding, and the ALSPAC Study Team, “Natural History of Atopic Dermatitis and Its Relationship to Serum Total Immunoglobulin E in a Population-Based Birth Cohort Study,” Pediatric Allergy and Immunology 15, no. 3 (2004): 221–229.}