Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, MD, ScM

Using data from 8,725 participants in the Framingham Heart Study who were followed for 176,166 person-years, we estimate that the lifetime risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) is 1 in 4 for men and women aged 40 years and older. Even when there is no antecedent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction, the lifetime risk of AF is high (1 in 6). This significant lifetime risk highlights the major public health problem resulting from AF and the need for further study into causes, prevention, and treatment.