Gout Prevalence Estimated to Increase More Than 70% by 2050

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An international population-based dataset forecasting model revealed the estimates of gout prevalence will increase by > 70% from 2020 to 2050 due to population growth and aging, according to a study published in The Lancet Rheumatology.¹

Based on these predictions, investigators believe dietary and lifestyle changes focused on reductions in body weight are necessary to reduce the burden of gout, in addition to access to crucial interventions designed to minimize flares and increase flare control.¹

Gout can lead to impaired physical function and work mobility, which may contribute to work absenteeism. Additionally, the disease can lead to economic costs, with costs increasing due to serum urate concentrations and number of flares.²

“Untreated gout places a substantial burden on the global health system, as chronic gout causes tophi formation, chronic joint pain, and erosion and damage to joints, resulting in an increase in morbidity and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs),” wrote investigators.¹ “Furthermore, despite advances in the treatment of gout, it is still underdiagnosed and undertreated, and is associated with an increased risk of mortality and comorbidities. Therefore, quantifying the burden and pattern of gout cases by age and sex, as well as making projections for the future, are necessary to efficiently target the current and future needs of the population.”

The team of investigators from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) presented the current global, regional, and national gout estimates as well as the years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout by location, age, and sex based on claims data from the US and Taiwan and population-based international data from 1990 to 2020. They then forecasted the prevalence of the condition to 2050. Prevalence was estimated using a mixed-effects model.¹

Globally, a total of 55.8 million people had a gout diagnosis in 2020, with an age-standardized prevalence of 659.3 per 100,000. This number represented an increase of 22.5% since 1990. Additionally, the prevalence of gout in 2020 was 3.26 times higher among males when compared with females and increased with age.¹

The number of prevalent gout cases is projected to reach 95.8 million by 2050, with population growth cited as the largest contributor. The age-standardized gout prevalence in 2050 is predicted to be 667 per 100,000 population, whereas the global age-standardized YLD rate of gout was 20.5 per 100,000 people in 2020.¹

Other factors contributing to YLDs included high body mass index (BMI, 34.3%) due in part to gout diagnosis and kidney dysfunction (11.8%).¹

Investigators noted limitations including the lack of data regarding the prevalence of gout, particularly from low-income and middle-income countries, because as previously mentioned, a large proportion of modelling input came from claims data from the US and Taiwan. Investigators emphasized the need for more comprehensive data collection among these regions. Further, no mortality was attributed to gout in the GBD model. However, attributing mortality is complex—especially in conditions like gout—and the GBD follows the principles of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) to contribute death to an underlying cause.¹

“Our findings highlight the need to focus on the prevention and management of gout as the population ages, especially among males,” investigators concluded.¹ “Preventing the disease requires public policy interventions to control risk factors, in particular high BMI, and guide resource allocation to enable early diagnosis and access and adherence to treatment.”

References

1. ^{GBD 2021 Gout Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. Published online July 8, 2024. doi:10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00117-6}
2. ^{Rai SK, Burns LC, De Vera MA, Haji A, et al. The economic burden of gout: a systematic review. Semin Arthritis Rheum. 2015; 45: 75-80}